Summer melt refers to the phenomenon in which a high school senior’s intention to attend college in the fall “melts away” during the summer. In the School District of Philadelphia (SDP), the summer melt rate is calculated as the percentage of graduating 12th grade students who intend to go to college but do not matriculate the first fall after graduation. A higher summer melt rate indicates a lower college matriculation rate.

This brief examines patterns in summer melt rates from 2015-16 to 2023-24 and then looks more closely at characteristics of summer melt for the graduating classes of school years 2021-22, 2022-23, and 2023-24.

Key findings include:

• The summer melt rates were 39.7% for the class of 2022, 36.9% for the class of 2023, and 40.5% for the class of 2024.
• SDP graduates who were male, Black/African American, Hispanic/Latine, Multi-Racial/Other, English Learners, receiving special education services, or economically disadvantaged had higher summer melt rates compared to their peers.
• The odds ratio analysis found that graduates who were male, Black/African American, Hispanic/Latine, Multi-Racial/Other, White, English Learners, and receiving special education had higher odds of experiencing summer melt across the graduating classes of 2021-22, 2022-23, and 2023-24.