In 2017-18, the School District of Philadelphia (SDP) developed a Ninth Grade On-Track (9GOT) metric to evaluate which first-time ninth graders finished the year with high or low likelihoods of graduating in four years. The metric was developed through rigorous analysis grounded in SDP data.

SDP also uses a Tenth Grade On-Track (10GOT) metric to allow for continued tracking of student progress towards graduation. Although this metric was developed through a thoughtful process in close collaboration with District leaders in high school education, the 10GOT standard has not previously been validated as a predictor of on-time graduation—either in itself, or in comparison to other possible standards that might plausibly be chosen. Given that the standard has been in use since 2017-18, we can now assess the relationship between 9GOT status and 10GOT status, and also 10GOT status and on-time graduation for several cohorts of students.

This research brief examines 1) the relationship between students’ 9GOT and 10GOT statuses, and 2) the relationship between students’ 10GOT status, their four-year graduation status, and credits earned.

Key findings include:

• 80.9% of students who were on track at the end of 9th grade remained on track through 10th grade.
• Only 8.4% of students who were off track at the end of 9th grade were back on track by the end of 10th grade.
• Graduation rates were higher for students who had earned more credits by the end of 10th grade. While 11 credits are required for promotion to 11th grade, having extra credits was associated with higher graduation rates.
• Regardless of the number of credits earned, students who met the 10th Grade On-Track requirements graduated at higher rates than those who did not.